Amazon's The Lord of the Rings: Revised Speculation and Updated Cast Info

The official synopsis for the show dropped midway through writing this, so my revised speculation about the show taking place in the middle of the Second Age is pointless as we now know that's when it happens (something the fanbase seems to be struggling to recognize). For those unaware, the release of the synopsis was not planned by Amazon--it was put out to prevent The One Ring from posting a spoiler they'd got hold of (so in return for not revealing whatever that was, Amazon agreed to release the show description). For those unfamiliar with TOR, they made their name during the heyday of Peter Jackson's LOTR films and, these days, serve as uncritical cheerleaders for Amazon's show (ergo the agreement for the corporate entity to save face rather than have the spoiler leaked)--you can see them screaming at anyone who offers criticism on Reddit in the anemic forum for the show. Here is the synopsis (with my clarification/comments in red):

This epic drama is set thousands of years before the events of J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings, and will take viewers back to an era in which great powers were forged [the Rings], kingdoms rose to glory and fell to ruin [Eregion], unlikely heroes were tested [invented characters--none of the canon heroes are unlikely], hope hung by the finest of threads, and the greatest villain that ever flowed from Tolkien’s pen threatened to cover all the world in darkness [Sauron]. Beginning in a time of relative peace, the series follows an ensemble cast of characters, both familiar and new, as they confront the long-feared re-emergence of evil to Middle-earth. From the darkest depths of the Misty Mountains [Khazad-dum], to the majestic forests of the elf-capital of Lindon, to the breathtaking island kingdom of Númenor, to the furthest reaches of the map [places like Far Harad], these kingdoms and characters will carve out legacies that live on long after they are gone [excluding the invented characters].

So why does this restrict us to the Second Age? I am making an assumption: the first casting call (cf) included options for up to six seasons--that's beyond the entire length of the show and, given that some of the actors will be playing humans, the show must cover just one period of time. Ergo, if we begin around the middle of the Second Age, there's no room for that cast to stretch through to the end of the Age (even Dwarves don't live that long typically).

Before dissecting this further, a little context for where I'm coming from. Almost a year ago I jumped into the waters of Amazon's The Lord of the Rings series with my own speculation. Since then, the pilot was shot (six months of shooting remain, wrapping up in June) and we had a second round of casting announcements in December. During that time I was reconsidering my idea that the show would focus on the end of the Second Age (in context the period that Tolkien wrote about the most and contains the most drama). My reasoning for a change then was that this would allow for the possibility of a second series that wasn't a pointless prequel. I'd originally gone against this idea because there were so few human characters of importance earlier in the Age, neglecting that this approach opens the door for the writers to insert their own material (for better or worse).

What does the synopsis tell us, other than the time period? It gives us key locations, all of which are either what we'd expect for the period or from a show that wants to insert diversity: Numenor, Khazad-dum, Lindon (the capital of Gil-galad's kingdom), and the farthest reaches. We'll delve further into the chronology below.

The Return of Sauron in the Second Age

There aren't a huge number of dates to work with that fit the show's focus (the issues with that time span I'll delve into later).

• c.1200 - Annatar (aka Sauron) approaches the Elves--he is turned away by Gil-galad and Elrond, but he's received by Celebrimbor and begins teaching he and his people
• c.1200 - Numenoreans establish permanent havens in Middle-Earth (Lond Daer was founded in c.750-800, but presumably Umbar and other outposts are established now--Pelargir comes later)
• 1320 - Tar-Teleperien is born
• c.1350-1400 - Galadriel and her daughter Celebrian leave Eregion to dwell in Lindornand (aka Lothlorien); her husband Celeborn remains behind
• 1394-1556 - Rule of Tar-Surion of Numenor
• 1474 - Tar-Minastir is born
• c.1500 - Rings of Power forged by Celebrimbor
• 1566-1731 - Tar-Telperien becomes the second queen of Numenor
• 1590 - Celebrimbor crafts the three Elven Rings of Power
• c.1600 - Sauron forges the One Ring; Barad-dur completed; Celebrimbor begins fighting Sauron; Glorfindel and the two Blue Wizards sent back to Middle Earth by the Valar
• 1634 - Tar-Ciryatan is born
• 1693 - War of the Elves and Sauron; Celebrimbor gives the Elven Rings to Gil-galad, Cirdan, and Galadriel
• 1695 - Elrond sent to assist by Gil-galad
• 1697 - Celebrimbor dies; Imladris (aka Rivendell) founded by Elrond, his retreating action aided by Celeborn
• 1700 - Numenor navy sent by Minastir (lead by Ciryatan) to assist the Elves (Sauron is defeated)
• c.1700 - After the war Galadriel and Celebrian reunite with Celeborn in Imladris; Gil-galad gives Elrond his Ring
• 1731-1869 - Rule of Tar-Minastir
• 1869-2029 - Rule of Tar-Ciryatan
• 2029-2221 - Rule of Tar-Atanamir
• 2221 - Ringwraiths first appear

In terms of drama the show won't want to miss the forging of the Rings of Power, so at minimum we'll see that in flashback. How much before that point they'll begin is uncertain, since the lifespans of non-Numenorean humans is the same as you or I and the show wants to include them throughout. The most logical period of urgency to cover would be 1590-1700, even if there's nothing condensed happening in that time until its end (for normal humans 1690 or so is as far back as you'd want to go). A more radical alternative would be to begin with Annatar's early approach and rejection by Gil-galad, leading into his friendship with Celebrimbor. The problem with this idea is that Men aren't relevant and there's none of the violence the show is going to want to exploit. It's worth emphasizing the problem aging presents to the show. Seeing Sauron as Annatar would be fantastic in terms of character and drama, but he's revealed 93-years before the true war begins.

Amazon's goal is to have a Game of Thrones-like show (in terms of success), but it can't directly imitate it, as Tolkien's world rarely involves gritty political drama. There's limited conflict among the Elves after the First Age (one could invent resistance from the Silvan Elves in assisting their brethren against Sauron, but otherwise the only serious disagreement is over Annatar before his reveal). As for the Men of Numenor, Tar-Teleperien is described as a proud, difficult person, but this only impacts her refusal to marry and (perhaps) directly help the Elves against Sauron (something her future successor, Tar-Minastir, is able to do without her help). There's not much for writers to sink their hooks into when it comes to the lore--this is why I initially thought the show would focus on the end of the Age, when there is political drama.

This means that conflict has to be manufactured with existing characters that we're unaware of, or that it all comes from new characters we don't know, or both. One of the major problems with invented characters is they can't actually achieve the most important successes within the narrative, because those deeds are already set in stone by the source material. The counter argument would be that, while we know Sauron is defeated in the war, it's only broadly said by whom, so that an invented Numenorean or Elf could be an important part of that--to me, that seems the likely approach for the show. It's also worth noting that the Elves don't really change as characters--there isn't an arc to follow, since by the Second Age those who remained in Middle-earth had largely undergone whatever transformations they were going to have (eg, Galadriel's pride is a function of the First Age), and the one change for Celeborn (a distrust of Dwarves) isn't resolved until the Third Age.

The conflict as written is very simple (which is another reason I thought Amazon would push for the more dynamic conflict later in the Age): it's Sauron against the Elves (and anyone else who opposes him); the Numenoreans are never threatened, aren't fighting one another internally, and arrive late in the process to help the Elves turn the tide. The event lacks the complications of The Lord of the Rings (or, even, The Hobbit). This means Amazon is going to have to invent strife and there are two ways they can do it: 1) The Men of Middle-Earth (Dunlendings etc) have their own communities and there would be strife among them and divided feelings about Sauron, 2) Make the Numenorean situation more political--perhaps Tar-Teleperien is totally opposed to assisting the Elves, or there could be a created opponent who makes such assistance more difficult to render (perhaps isolationists vs interventionists). What I don't see are many changes to the Elves--not only would it make little sense in terms of the lore, but it could conflict with The Lord of the Rings (since, with few exceptions, the known Elves survive into that story and don't reflect at all on such things).

One final point that needs to be considered: the IP is being produced and showrun by people who worked for Bad Robot--a group with a checkered past (I'd argue they wrecked the Star Trek IP and played a major role in the chaos we see in Star Wars). One of the issues BR has is with plot, preferring to emphasize action and mystery that isn't typical for Tolkien--I fully expect to see Galadriel running around with a sword ala Xena: Warrior Princess. The epoch does have a war, so there's slaughter available, but my fear remains we'll get the kind of silliness that's plagued the Star Trek IP (we don't want any "This is the power of math!" moments).

Cast

One of the great quandaries of speculation about the series is we don't know how much control the Tolkien Estate actually has or how much typical race-swapping Amazon can do (you can see it wholesale in their Wheel of Time series). As I mentioned in my post last year, ethnically the cast would very white, as besides the Druedain, POC's exist only to the south (Harad and Far Harad) and the east (Easterlings). This context does make race-swapping the Blue Wizards no big deal (echoing those groups). Unlike in most IP, the racial make-up of Tolkien's Middle-earth isn't abstract or a default elements, as it's meant to be our Earth's pre-history, so the area of action represents Western Europe with Harad roughly the Middle East/Mediterranean and the Easterlings the various peoples stretching from Eastern Europe into Asia. The entire story of Middle-earth was intended to serve as a mythological background for England (very specifically the Anglo-Saxons, who lost their mythology to the Norman conquest). Typically adaptors don't care about such niceties--the idea put forward is that the IP has to be for everyone, something deemed only possible by being changed, along with the George R. R. Martin maxim 'the books are the books' (ergo, different mediums mean things have to change)--I discuss this idea briefly here). We don't know exactly what stance the show is taking, which limits deducing casting, although the expectation is we'll get at least some swapping (probably not much though, as so few characters are known from the period). What we know for certain from the deal that was signed by Amazon and the estate is that none of the events can be changed--when they happen and their outcomes are set in stone--but that's a minor restriction.

Let's also be clear that, in terms of the general public, no one knows anything about the content--they don't know the stories, the literary intent--nothing. The Silmarillion has never sold well--it's a curiosity sought out by Tolkien fans after having read the primary narratives. I have friends who can't make it through The Lord of the Rings, much less the far denser writing of The Silmarillion. In that sense, Amazon has almost carte blanch when it comes to casting outside the notable Elven characters (who extend into the narrative of The Lord of the Rings).

When I heard that Cordovo was cast last year I immediately thought he might be playing Khamul, the Easterling who becomes a Ringwraith (even though he was presumably envisioned as being Persian--the Easterlings are a diverse group of people, but Khamul's home of Khand has etymological clues for that region of the world). As the only named POC who is alive during this time, its assured he'll appear (whether he's Cordovo or not).

I mentioned that there aren't many characters known from that era and it's worth mentioning the major ones (divided by category; those who are not known to be active in the events during the show are in italics):

Elves

• Celebrimbor
• Galadriel
• Celeborn
• Celebrian
• Gil-galad
• Elrond
• Glorfindel
• Cirdan
• Oropher (father of Thranduil)
• Thranduil (father of Legolas, son of Oropher)
• Amdir (King of Loriand/Lorien)

Numenoreans

• Tar-Surion (d. 1556; father of Tar-Teleperien; ruler when his sisters refuse the throne)
• Tar-Teleperien (d. 1731; refused to marry)
• Tar-Minastir (d.1869; nephew of Tar-Teleperien, involved in the war vs Sauron)
• Tar-Ciryatan (d. 2029; son of Tar-Minastir, involved in the war vs Sauron)

Dwarves

• Durin III (ruler of Khazad-dum)

Other

• Tom Bombadil (aka Iarwain Ben-adar)
• Treebeard
• Blue Wizards (Alatar and Pallando)
• Khamul (Easterling Ringwraith)
• Other Ringwraiths (all would receive their Rings as Men during the conflict)

There's a tiny chance the show could include the Valar--they send Glorfindel and the Blue Wizards back, after all, and as spiritual beings you could put anyone in those roles. With that said, I think it's highly unlikely (it's not entirely clear if they would be available with the specific IP Amazon purchased).

The involved Elves should be significant characters in the series (we know Galadriel is, which implies her husband and daughter will be as well), although both Cirdan and Gil-galad could easily sink into secondary roles (depending on what the show wants to emphasize). Similarly, the three known Numenoreans should also be important (Teleperien, Minastir, and Ciryatan), but a wealth of other folk from Numenor will have to be created to round out that setting. I'll admit forgetting that Tolkien, late in his life, changed the origins of the Blue Wizards to have them sent in the Second Age (rather than the Third), although their interactions with the main cluster of characters would be minimal (their mission did not change--to go east and south and hamper Sauron's efforts--but while originally they failed, in the late revision they succeed). Beyond that it becomes difficult to guess, since we can't be sure of Amazon's casting formula.

It's important to note that it's believed Amazon has held back announcing some of the bigger names--rumours claim Russell Crowe (soon to be 57) is among those not yet announced. If that's true, it impacts the guesses below, as more prominent actors would be given prominent roles. I've noted nationalities below in case accents are part of the casting process (I doubt it, but just in case). I've noted people of colour by putting the actors in green. I've also included two actors we know were cast via RDI (the Redanian Intelligence): Anson Boon and Ben Fransham. Also not included are several actors cast as warlords in what are clearly minor roles (all are young, local New Zealand actors: Kate Richardson, Tasman Lindsay, and Aidan Veldsman), because these seem like minor roles. Actors are listed from oldest to youngest.

Cast

Lenny Henry (62) - British; extensive TV experience; besides acting he's a comedian and can sing

Geoff Morrell (62) - Australian; extensive TV experience

Peter Mullan (61) - Scottish; extensive TV experience (one of the few actors I've actually seen, specifically in Ozark)

Simon Merrells (55) - British; a long line of credits

Lloyd Owen (54) - British (parents are Welsh); steady TV actor

Peter Tait (50s?) - Kiwi; steady TV actor, although its been haphazard the last ten years (he was in one of the Underworld sequels, along with expected work for Peter Jackson)

Thusitha Jayasundera (49) - Sri Lankan (living in the UK); steady TV experience

Joseph Mawle (46) - British; a busy TV actor well known for his brief role in Game of Thrones

Daniel Weyman (43) - British; busy TV actor

Sara Zwangobani (40s?) - Australian; best known for an Australian soap opera

Maxine Cunliffe (40s) - Sierre Leone (lived in New Zealand for the last 15-20 years); despite her age she has almost no on-screen experience (she's more of a musician/stage actor)

Dylan Smith (40s) - Canadian; a veteran actor

Kip Chapman (40ish) - Kiwi; steady TV experience

Ben Fransham (40ish) - Kiwi; known for playing characters with lot's of prosthetics (likely playing multiple characters)

Trystan Gravelle (40) - Welsh; steady TV actor

Nazanin Boniadi (40) - British-Iranian; veteran actress (she was in Iron Man, but I don't remember her)

Benjamin Walker (38) - American; steady TV actor; also a comedian

Tom Budge (38) - Australian; incredibly busy actor; also a musician; Budge was fired after the pilot episodes were shot

Owain Arthur (37) - Welsh; extensive TV experience

Cynthia Addai-Robinson (36) - American (moved to the US from the UK when she was four); long line of TV credits (I saw her in The Accountant, but don't remember her)

Sophia Nomvete (30s) - British; stage actress who has no prior TV/film credits listed

Ismael Cruz Cordova (33) - Puerto Rican; busy actor

Augustus Prew (33) - British; steady TV actor; if there's a gay character, he's the only representation I'm aware of

Alex Tarrant (30ish) - Kiwi (Maori); steady TV actor

Morfydd Clark (32) - Welsh; worked a ton given her age

Robert Aramayo (27) - British; best known for his brief role in Game of Thrones

Ema Horvath (26) - American; limited credits for the young actress

Maxim Baldry (24) - British-Russian; a busy young actor who has a leading role

Leon Wadham (20s?) - Kiwi; steady TV actor (also a writer/director, although that's not relevant here)

Anthony Crum (20s) - Kiwi; limited experience; also a comedian

Fabian McCallum (20s) - Australian; coming off a near five-year gap in acting (just one short)

Megan Richards (early 20s) - British; a very new actress (this is her fourth role)

Charlie Vickers (20s) - British; similar profile as above

Anson Boon (21) - British; steady TV actor

Markella Kavenagh (teen) - Australian; very busy given how recently she started acting

Ian Blackburn (18) - Kiwi; Virtually no experience

Tyroe Muhafidin (14) - Australian; this is his first major acting gig

It goes without saying that for most people, this is an underwhelming group of actors. None are broadly well-known, so none bring people running to theaters or their TV-sets. These are not the actors a show hires to generate buzz--and, indeed, they have not. It's very reminiscent of The Witcher cast (minus Henry Cavill).

I should note that Merrells' character is 'Trevyn' (presumably a pseudonym), while Megan Richards is playing 'May'. It's of interest that a number of the actors here are known for music (something I doubt is incidental). That aside, we can break the cast down in terms of categories:

• 27 Caucausian/10 POCs
• 27 Male/10 female (there are more women of colour, 6/4, which is odd)
• 16 UK (12 British, 3 Welsh, 1 Scottish)
• 7 Kiwi
• 6 Australian
• 3 American
• 1 Canadian
• 1 Russian (British)
• 1 Puerto Rican (American)
• 1 Iranian (British)
• 1 Sri Lankan (British)
• 1 Sierre Leone (Kiwi)

There are economic reasons/commitments for the production to hire New Zealand actors. The preponderance of actors from the UK is no surprise--for tonal reasons they dominant historical and fantasy productions. There's no rhyme or reason that I can see for the POCs who appear--they seem to have been chosen under the broad American rubric of 'ethnic'--what's absent are East and Southeast Asian actors, which is a primary reason why their approach is difficult to unpack (if this was Wheel of Time and anyone could play anything, then we could abandon ethnicity as a casting guide completely).

What's so blatant is the lack of a big name--no Henry Cavill (Witcher) or Sean Bean (Game of Thrones)--nohing for casual fans to gravitate too (the second round of casting was so unremarkable it received almost no coverage). If this doesn't change it all the pressure falls on the IP itself and I'm not sure a Second Age story can do that--even including Galadriel (and I mean the character, since very few people know who Morfydd Clark is). The pressure on the writing becomes much higher than (for example) Witcher, which leaned on performances to overcome that weakness. While we have reason to suspect announcements of more recognizable names are coming, until that occurs we can only work with what we have.

Before we speculate about roles, we have to address possible concerns with the production: the politics of Amazon Studio head Jennifer Salke and, more importantly, the inexperienced showrunners in charge of it (J. D. Payne and Patrick McKay). The only prior credit for the two showrunners is (ironically) as uncredited writers on Star Trek: Beyond. I speculated that Amazon exec (and former Bad Roboter) Kevin Jarzynski is behind the hiring and I think Bad Robot's approach is a poor fit for a Lord of the Rings audience. There are reasons to fear this will be another D. B. Weiss/David Benioff situation, although unlike Benioff they haven't had their names officially attached to awful material beforehand. The concern with Salke's politics is very specifically tied to the IP. Tolkien's work is literary--it tackles big questions with a very deliberate approach, something out of sync with cookie-cutter TV--because of that it engenders different audience expectations.

A potential mitigating factor for concerns is the cost--250 million for the rights alone--along with an edict from Jeff Bezos for this to be a Game of Thrones-like hit. This puts enormous pressure on those involved to deliver something broadly appealing. There were causes for optimism--Bryan Cogman was heavily advertised as part of the process, although his role was largely as a consulting producer (a job he's apparently completed). His departure may match that of Tom Shippey--brought in to guard the lore--if Shippey was released, that's a bad sign, as he'd be one person within the production expected to push for something faithful to Tolkien (I don't think illustrator John Howe's involvement is relevant in that regard, although there are rumours he's also been removed).

Roles

In my post from last year (link above) I speculated on who the then-known actors could be based on via roles listed by Production Weekly, which included 19 regulars. I cast them based on the show taking place towards the end of the Second Age, so the guesses for Men are clearly wrong. I wanted to go through that exercise again with the expanded list and see what we can decipher (keeping in mind some of the specifics from the cast listing may have changed).

Below are code names (two names not on this list are known as well: 'Trevyn' for Merrells and 'May' for Richards--as mentioned, these are probably pseudonyms--neither appear below). Four of these pseudonyms have had their actors revealed officially or by the trades and are in blue; the italics are my own emphasis; the 'up to 6 options' refers to seasons. Series regulars listed: 19 (12 male, 7 female; 9 no ethnicity specified or open; 7 Caucasian; 2 Caucasian or mixed; 3 diverse). This means that, barring additional announcements, most of the announced female actors have major roles (7 of 10), and that 7 of the 11 roles that were optionally diverse, were cast that way. The main roles, given the current known actors, are split 11/8 Caucasian/diverse (matching modern adaptations). I'd take this with a grain of salt however, since I think there must be more female cast members we're unaware of.

Oren, Series Regular, Male (40-60) - "This is a role for an established actor with some dramatic heft. A villain, who can also evoke a deep sense of pathos and wounded / fallen nobility. Must possess a certain degree of physicality. Should seem middle aged, though must also project a sense of timelessness. Joseph Mawle (Cast)"

Collectively assumed to be Sauron (the trades said he was playing the main villain, so who else could he be?); the show strayed towards the younger end of the spectrum of the role (Mawle is 46)

Eldien, Series Regular, Female (20-30) Caucasian - "A unique and formidable young woman required for this complex role. Should be able to convincingly appear mid-20s, while also portraying a timeless/eternal quality. Role also requires a strong physical component. Should be comfortable and adept with classical, heightened/quasi-Shakespearean language. Classical training a plus. TBA (Offer made)"

Morfydd Clark (revealed by Variety) who is playing Galadriel; the 'timeless' element is the most obvious giveaway that it's an Elvish character (the leaked audition suggests she's been fighting, and that she is friends with Beldor--it mentions a son who isn't a thing for the character (perhaps filler for Celebrian), but note the comment about a 'physical component'--presumably sword-spinning is forthcoming); they again strayed towards the older end of the spectrum (Clark is 32). Someone like Elizabeth Debicki would have been perfect for the role (people forget that Galadriel, and Elves in general, are tall), but Clark is much more affordable.

Beldor, Series Regular, Male (20-24) - Male. Early 20s. "A dramatic role. Needs to emanate a sense of intelligence and political savvy, but also hold his own in quiet, emotionally intimate scene-work. Will often be the straight man in pairings with more out-sized personalities. Will also be action-oriented at times. Should seem optimistic and early 20s, though also possess a gravitas that belies a character who could be far older. Needs to be able to speak in a convincingly heightened rhetorical style (at times quasi-Shakespearean). Classical training a plus. Robert Aramayo (Cast)"

When I first saw this, with the gravitas tag, I thought of Elrond, but given that this description and Neldor's (below) are virtually identical, I entertained the possibility they are brothers (if so, this is the younger brother), however, another interpretation is that are a similar 'type' of character; we know from the audition tape (link above) that he's Elven and in terms of a show's lead, Elrond would a natural choice (it's what The One Ring believes as well); Aaramayo is slightly older than the brief (27)

Tyra, Series Regular, Female (16-25) - "A singular young lady needed for this delightful leading role with dramatic and comedic elements. Characterful. Should be able to play as a wide-eyed 15-17 year old, but with a strength and maturity beyond her years. Markella Kavenagh (Cast)"

I believe she's Celebrian (given the strength and maturity tag and 'beyond her years'--something that seems suited to an Elf (even if she lacks the speech designation)--a leaked audition leans that way, since she's clearly non-human; Kavenagh is on the younger side of the brief (18)

Neldor, Series Regular, Male (20-27) Caucasian - "A dramatic role for a young male actor. Needs to emanate a sense of intelligence and political savvy, but also hold his own in quiet, emotionally intimate scene-work. Will often be the straight-man in pairings with more out-sized personalities. Will also be action-oriented at times. Should seem optimistic and early 20s, though also possess a gravitas that belies a character who could be far older. Needs to be able to speak in a convincingly heightened rhetorical style (at times quasi-Shakespearean). Classical training a plus."

The description of Neldor is virtually identical to Beldor, other than their age range. Because Beldor is an Elf, Neldor must be as well--which Elf is hard to say, perhaps Celeborn, since he and Elrond share pivotal moments during the war against Sauron. My guess is the part belongs to Baldry (since we know he has a leading role), but I included Vickers above as well.
Actors who fit the category: Vickers, Baldry, Boon, Wadham, McCallum

Calenon, Series Regular, Male (35-45) - "Role for a classically trained leading man, who is equal parts soldier and lover; a ruggedly-handsome, brooding, Byronic hero. Must possess a certain degree of physicality. Character should seem mid 30s-40s, though also project a certain sense of agelessness. Needs to be able to speak in a convincingly heightened rhetorical style (at times quasi-Shakespearean) Appearance: Please submit all ethnicities."

I believe this is an Elf due to the tags and could fit Glorfindel, but the 'lover' makes me wonder; Celeborn is a lover (of Galadriel) and a bit tetchy for an Elf, but given my prediction above he seems precluded. He's not described as a leader, presumably precluding Gil-galad and Celebrimbor, leaving us with the possibility of Cirdan (although he's older than Gil-galad, so the age range offered here might be off). I think Arthur has the part (the physicality wins it for me), but it may be a show creation (Walker is the other image).
Actors who fit: Weyman, Smith, Chapman, Fransham, Gravelle, Walker, Budge, Arthur, Prew, Cordova

Galanion, Series Regular, Male - "series regular (up to 6 options) OR possibly recurring TBC [to be confirmed]. The character portrayed is in their late 40s early 50s A man of elegance and great gravitas. A leader of his people, wise and pragmatic to a fault. He isn't afraid to manipulate for the greater good. Looking for a classical leading man here. Should be comfortable and adept with classical, heightened/quasi-Shakespearean language. Classical training a plus. Appearance: Please submit all ethnicities."

Descriptors suggest he's Elvish and given the manipulation element I'd lean towards Celebrimbor over Gil-galad. If we're going strictly by the listed ages, I think Owen fits best.
Actors who fit: Smith, Tait, Owen

Daric, Series Regular, Male (35-50) - "series regular (up to 6 options) An amazing leading role for a methodical, thoughtful & immersive actor. He vacillates between stubborn gravitas and a sense of sweetness and innocence. An enigmatic figure, he is initially curious, childlike, and very out of place from his surroundings but with a deep and primal sense of purpose that drives him underneath it all. This is a physical role expressive nonverbal abilities are going to be required."

My initial guess was Glorfindel because of the 'out of place' element (I'm not sure what to make of the nonverbal part), although the Blue Wizards would be just as out of place (the nonverbal and the physical doesn't fit); the characteristics strike me as Elvish (arguments for both Tom Bombadil or Treebeard fail because both like to talk); if I'm correct I think this is Weyman, as I'm not sure the other choices could hit the 'out of place' element the same way, and possibly an invented character.
Actors who fit: Smith, Weyman, Chapman, Fransham, Gravelle, Walker, Budge, Arthur, Prew, Cordova

Brac, Series Regular, Male (35-45) - "A rewarding role for a classically-trained, character actor. Actor must be equally comfortable playing as the irascible, cantankerous component of a dramatic duo, but also be able to perform straight drama in tear-jerking, emotionally charged scenarios. Should seem mid-30s-40s; will range in dramatic pairings as a best friend, a son, a husband and a father. Needs to be able to speak in a convincingly heightened rhetorical style (at times quasi-Shakespearean). TBA (Choice)"

Given the tags this is an Elf; hard to peg the character, as Thranduil or Amdir are the only ones that fit off hand, but neither are likely to be humorous, so it's more likely to be an invented character. I think this is Budge (who has since been fired after completing the pilot episodes).
Actors who fit: Smith, Weyman, Chapman, Fransham, Gravelle, Walker, Budge, Arthur, Prew, Cordova

Loda, Series Regular, Male - "series regular (up to 6 options). A fantastic role for a strong leading male actor in his late 40s/50s. Loda is earthy, deep, solid. Doesn't give his feelings away easily. Physically strong & fit. Powerful. Appearance: Caucasian TBD (Choices)"

Lack of Shakespearean tag suggests a human or Dwarven character, with the leaked audition tape making me lean towards Numenorean and almost certainly invented. The tape also indicates he's a leader, has a pair of sons (or, at least, children), is leading a group of soldiers with hints at Numenorean colonization. Because I've put Owen and Smith in other roles, this defaults to Tait (I don't know if he fits the physical element).

Actors who fit: Owen, Tait, Smith

Cole, Series Regular, Male (18-22) - "series regular (up to 6 options). A young athletic male in his very early 20s, to play around 18. He has the weight of the world on his shoulders, so must feel an old soul. Troubled, but mercurial and charismatic. A great role. Appearance: Caucasian. TBA (Cast)"

The lack of a Shakespearean tag suggests a human character. There's a chance this is Ciryatan; regardless, I think it's Vickers in the role (Wadham is the other pictured).
Actors who fit: Blackburn, Boon, Vickers, McCallum, Crum, Wadham, Baldry

Shay, Series Regular, Female (18-24) Caucasian - "series regular (up to 6 options) A physically strong, pragmatic, clever young woman. She is studious and ambitious. She can be serious but has a quick wit and a wry sense of humour. She has the ability to moderate any argument shes a peacekeeper and the lodestone for her family. Shes also deeply politically minded, which presents a particular challenge when the political leanings within her own family become increasingly divided..."

Lack of Shakespearean tag suggests a human character. The mention of politics makes me think Numenorean, but an invented character. I think this is Horvath's role, as there are no other female actors available for it (she's slightly older than the range).

Hamsom, Series Regular, Male (44-50) - "Warm, charming, weathered. Kind, sad eyes. He's quietly suffering from an ailment he has to hide from his physically demanding travelling community. He puts on a brave face in public and keeps his physical suffering to himself. He does this with charm and a twinkle, concealing his sadness that his family has to cover for him. He loves his family and his strong, practical wife. Appearance: The character portrayed is Caucasian or of Mixed Ethnicity."

I thought Smith's weathered appearance put him in this role (there's no other fit in the age range). From the picture posted on social media in August it appears as though he's playing a Dwarf. Given who his wife is, however (below), it's also possible he's playing one of the Druedain or something similar.

Cora, Series Regular, Female (38-42) - "series regular (up to 6 options) Practical, solid, earthy. A Matriarch under too much pressure she sweeps any problems under the rug. Her husband has health problems which could turn into an issue in their physically demanding travelling community and the pressure of this and their large family can make her seem dismissive and detached. In reality she's deeply loving. She leans too much on her oldest daughter and worries that shes dangerously curious about the world. She desperately wants a quiet life and doesnt want to be bothered with the drama of the outside world. Appearance: The character portrayed is Caucasian or of Mixed Ethnicity."

Clearly the wife of Hamsom above. Boniadi seems like the only choice given the narrow age range, but would you want her or Robinson behind all that make-up and hair?
Actors who fit: Robinson, Boniadi

Eira, Series Regular, Female (35-45) - "A warm and maternal female actor required for this comedic/dramatic role. Singing ability a plus but not a requirement. TBA (Cast)"

No Shakespearean tag suggests it's not an Elvish character and almost certainly a show-invention (Dwarvish, perhaps?).  The singing/maternal background makes me believe this is Cunliffe.
Actors who fit: Cunliffe, Zwangobani, Boniadi, Robinson, Nomvete

Aric, Series Regular, Male (30-40) - "A really charismatic male actor required for this dramatic leading role with comedic elements. Role has a significant physical component and calls for an actor with real range. TBA (Cast)"

No Shakespearean tag suggests a human character and probably a non-Numenorean (which seems reflected in the leaked audition tape--link above); possibly a show invention (none of the characters known from the lore fit the comedic element). The description is so sparse I'm unsure who has the role (as the youngest range of the more ambiguous male roles it leans towards Cordova, although Arthur also fits the physical element, but I've already placed him above).
Actors who fit: Gravelle, Walker, Budge, Arthur, Prew, Cordova, Tarrant

Asta, Series Regular, Female - "A major role for a well-established & powerful female actor in her 50s/early 60s. A high-ranking lady - we are looking for someone with real stature here. She is mighty but reserved, also shows grace & humor. Series regular (up to 6 options) Appearance: The character portrayed is a diverse female."

Lack of Shakespearean tag suggests a human character and either a show-invention or Teleperien; the only cast member who fits is Jayasundera (once again, going on the younger side of the age range), but she's not a well-established actor at all (in fact, none of the actresses have stature). I believe the actress hasn't been revealed yet. This feels a lot like the Eithne role (Josette Simon) from The Witcher, although we can hope it's not that poorly written.

Kari, Series Regular, Female (30-39) Diverse - "A strong and independent woman, a self-sufficient single mother to a teenage boy. She is beautiful, proud, clever, and charming. She is also her villages healer. At times gentle, but also at times fiery, especially when she feels wrongfully judged. She is torn between her son, her own people and the man with whom she is secretly in love an outsider to the village who the rest of the community may never accept... but possibly also the only person in her world with whom she could find real and lasting happiness. series regular (up to 6 options)"

All the evidence points to a non-Numenorean human character and a show invention. My guess is this simple villager has fallen in love with a Numenorean and is threatened either by Sauron or an aggressive faction from Numenor. Probably Robinson, if Boniadi has the Cora-role (even though Muhafidin looks more like Boniadi's child than Robinson's).
Actors who fit: Boniadi, Robinson, Nomvete

Kyrin, Series Regular, Male (12-15) - "The son of a widower, Kyrin is a sweet, honorable kid who feels responsible for his mother. Curious about the world and frustrated by his small-town life. He's been forced to grow up fast in order to be the man of the house, but really he's still a teenager. Despite imperfect circumstances, he and his mum are a close-knit team and he can be suspicious of other people's intentions with her. Series regular (up to 6 options) Appearance: The character portrayed is a diverse male."

As above; this is clearly Kari's son and has to be played by Muhafidin. Actors this young are always a risk (child characters can be incredibly annoying if the performance and writing is anything less than excellent), but it remains to be seen how much the show leans on him.

Six characters received the quasi-Shakespearean tag and I believe that means all are Elves: Eldien (Galadriel), Beldor, Neldor, Calenon, Galanion, and Brac. Beyond that it's difficult to judge from an old casting sheet and an incomplete cast. Despite being unfamiliar with most of the actors, I'm not that worried about performances--there should be enough talent to carry the show forward. The One Ring indulges in some fan casting with Lenny Henry as a Blacklock Dwarf (they live near Rhun), Russell Crowe as Durin III, Ghassan Massoud as the Blue Wizard Alatar, and Ken Watanabe as the other Blue Wizard Pallando (three of these four haven't been announced as part of the show). It's always difficult assessing speculation from people who have inside information, but it appears as though this is pure fan casting. I do like the idea of Henry as a Dwarf, however (it would fit Amazon trying to imitate Peter Jackson's films, as while Tolkien's Dwarves are not particularly funny, John Rhys-Davies made that a major part of Gimli's character in the films).

The Story

What, if anything, do the casting descriptions (and audition leaks) tell us about the show? The synopsis suggests it will be location focused just like Game of Thrones. We have four locations and because of the lore we can place at least some of these characters (I've also included those discussed below):

• Lindon (Elves/Numenoreans): Gil-galad, Cirden, Glorfindel, Elrond, Erestor, Galdor, Gildor
• Eregion/Khazad-dum/Lothlorian (all folk): Celebrimbor, Celeborn, Galadriel, Celebrian, Amdir, Amroth, Nimrodel, Haldir, Rumil, Orophin, Durin III
• Numenor (Numenoreans): Teleperien, Minastir, Ciryatan
• Furthest reaches (Middle Men/Sauraon/Blue Wizards): Khamul
• Sauron we can expect to appear throughout Middle-earth (but not Numenor)

A few Elves from Lord of the Rings could also feature here, but because we don't know how old they are it's hard to be sure: Erestor (who becomes Elrond's chief counsellor; when and how he meets Elrond is up for grabs, since we only know of their relationship in the Third Age), Gildor (also of Rivendell), Galdor (associated with Cirden and therefore Gil-galad), and Haldir and his brothers (associated with Lothlorien and, therefore, Galadriel and possibly Celeborn at this time). Amroth and Nimrodel (both of Lothlorian) are almost likely to appear as the latter is one of the only known Elves who could be a source of inter-Elven tension.

There can't be only one antagonist, so major servants of Sauron are to be expected and the idea of someone turning evil is likely on the menu (I've assumed for awhile that Khamul, if he's used, will be something of an anti-hero who then turns to Sauron due to real or perceived slights; the other Ringwraiths may simply be pursuing power and immortality). There also must be internal issues or disputes to add dramatics to the locations, although it's difficult to imagine what they are given what little we know about the period.

I don't know what disagreements could be used among the Elves, other than how to deal with Sauron when he's in disguise; there's possible tensions with Silvan Elves, and prejudice from people like Celeborn towards the Dwarves, but there's not a lot of meat to that. Celebrimbor was in love with Galadriel (despite her marriage), so this element might be played up. Broadly speaking, the Elven story is the one best understood, since it's the one most detailed by Tolkien--the show is playing with details here, rather than the broader strokes of the story.

With Dwarves and Men the temptations of Sauron are an easy place to go (both fought on either side of the conflict), but I don't believe the show will be that limited when it comes to who or what creates dramatic tension. I suspect Numenorean colonizing activity (beginning c.1200) will be a factor. While during this time Numenor only established fortified towns along the shores, their activities (tree-felling in particular) caused strife with the locals, a fact Sauron used to gain alliances with them. These local territories have no names, although some of the people do, which leaves room for writers to create what they want. There are some limitations, however, as those folk only learned basics like agriculture and other things from the Numenoreans (sometime after first contact, c.600). As for Dwarves, we know almost nothing about them in the Second Age.

What else can be surmised? Going by the audition leak, Clark's 'Eldien' (Galadriel) is friends with Aramayo's 'Beldor' (who can't be Celeborn because of how the pair talk about Galadriel's family), therefore I think 'Beldor' is Elrond (it's difficult to imagine any other existing Elf having this association with her). My belief that 'Tyra' is Celebrian is a bit more tenuous, since there's nothing in her description that proclaims her to be someone's daughter (both of her leaked auditions have a less elevated language, making it harder to pin down her role--keep in mind, both of Galadriel's auditions referenced a son she does not have, so you can't take the dialogue too literally), but someone has to have the role and they ought to be younger than Clark, which only leaves Kavanagh from the known cast. 'Neldor', whose description is almost identical to 'Beldor', I believe is Celeborn. Part of the reason for that is the character's close association with Elrond (particularly in the fight against Sauron in Eregion).

'Brac' has the Elven descriptor, but the family element makes him hard to place since so few Elves are known to have families; the comedic part almost certainly qualifies him as an original creation (what duo he's part of is hard to say). Given that both 'Beldor' and 'Neldor' are the straight men to more outsized pairings, 'Brac' is surely associated with one or both. If he's an established Elf, Gildor is the only named character who might fit.

The description for 'Calenon' isn't that different than 'Aric', except that the role seems intended for an Elf; given the higher age range, someone like Cirdan is possible (assuming it's not an invented character), even though the description is hard to parse with what we know of him. The only other older known Elves are Gil-galad and Celebrimbor, which brings us to the 'Galanion' role. This is not necessarily that of a series regular and is for an Elven leader of some sort, but manipulation for the greater good is hard to parse with Elves after the First Age--stretching it could be Celebrimbor or the Silvan leaders (I lean towards the former).

All the other characters are extremely hard to place given how little we know:

• The 'childlike' element makes understanding 'Daric' very difficult and he lacks the obvious Elven tag--my Glorfindel idea is probably wrong and it's likely an original character, but the 'out of place' element fits so few others of significance that it's the best I can do at the moment. It's possible he's an out of place human stuck in another culture when the show begins, although it's still hard to understand why he'd be childlike. In terms of story, he might be intended as a vehicle for lore dumps.
• The 'deep/earthy' and other descriptors suggest 'Loda' is a Dwarven character (there will be more than one surely; given who has been cast, it appears as though the show will utilize actors of normal height and use camera tricks to make them appear smaller when they are with non-Dwarves). There's a great deal of freedom for the writers with the Dwarves, since other than their usual characteristics almost nothing specific is said about them in this context.
• 'Cole' seems to be a young Man--possibly Numenorean--and given that he has 'the weight of the world' on his shoulders he could be Ciryatan, but could also be invented. He's surely intended to be one of the main vehicles through which we experience the Numenoreans.
• 'Shay' is part of a family and certainly human so almost certainly a show creation. Her purpose seems to be showing the life of 'regular people' in the era. 'Hamson' has health problems and is married to 'Cora', with whom he has a daughter; they travel in a community like the Romani; all of this is certainly original and the only question is if Hansom=Smith and if Smith's wacky makeup means he's a Dwarf--if so, then this is a travelling community of Dwarves. If I'm wrong about Tyra, she could be the daughter of the couple, although that becomes very hard to parse given that one or both of her parents could be of mixed race.
• There aren't enough clues about 'Eira' to place her, other than she's a show invention and human.
• The lines for Aric seem to be with an unnamed Elven woman--he's on the run from soldiers, having lost his home (something that is unlikely for a Numenorean, so he's presumably a Middle Man). My guess is he's meant to show the Elves what's happening to those outside their realms, although if that's the case it's something of a failing in the narrative since the Elves have a very full understanding of these things--they simply do not feel responsible for the fate of Men.
• 'Asta' is described as high-ranking, but given the descriptors that's either as a human or Dwarf--almost certainly a show-creation. I'm assuming she's not Numenorean from the diverse tag (which may be a mistake on my part--we shall see), so if I'm right she's meant to illustrate the plight of those groups who have to deal with Sauron.
• 'Kari' is the mother of 'Kyrin' (Muhadfidin); she is a village healer and in love with an outsider who might be Aric. This would be another pairing intended to show the realities for normal people

The few story threads we can pick out from the human cast descriptors all seem quite small and personal. We can't make too much of that, as casting calls aren't intended to reveal plot. Because the major events of the story are preordained, it seems like all the show can really do with non-Elven characters is give them these personal stories which are impacted by the much larger event decided by the major figures of the period. How satisfying that will be is down to the writing.

There are some very interesting things the show could do to illustrate what life is like for the immortal Elves--seeing their non-Elven friends age and die, along with the living creatures around them--but there's no hint of that here. I don't know that the writing team is good enough (or even interested enough) to delve into that, but death is a dominant theme in Tolkien and I'd like to see it.

Concerns

I mentioned some of my worries above, but the major concern is writing. Not only is writing the weak point of most genre shows, but Tolkien is a much harder writer to imitate than the modern prose of George R. R. Martin, Terry Brooks, Neil Gaiman, or even old pulp writers like Robert E. Howard and Edgar Rice Burroughs.  No one writes like Tolkien and no one since has successfully imitated his prose (even if his stories are copied endlessly). Tolkien's characters also have moral certainty and are genuinely good or evil, a common element in ancient and Medieval literature, but now found only in children's stories. In looking at the writers involved (cf) they have no experience at all in the genre and that's a scenario that rarely pays off. These are people used to writing conventional shows (dramatic or otherwise), none of which are remotely similar to Tolkien. The most notable credits come from Gennifer Hutchison, but as good as Breaking Bad is, there's no bridge from that to this. While it's not impossible for the group to achieve good results, there's nothing in their backgrounds to suggest that they will (the writing room is very reminiscent of The Witcher, which struggled mightily with much more modern material from Sapkowski).

Importantly, Tolkien has a much larger fanbase than any other genre IP, which means the usual decision to shift things for mass appeal could turn off more people than it appeals too. The audience is already familiar with at least the films (which were, in movie terms, quite faithful). It's a huge hill to climb--to create five-seasons of dramatic material about events we know almost nothing about that lack the dynamism of any other major conflict within the lore. Also, as a subscription service, it's very easy for people to jump off the wagon if they don't like where the show is going. Seeing how much Bad Robot butchered the simpler paradigm of Star Trek, my expectation for success is very low.

Judging Interest in the Show

I did this last year, but it's interesting to see (in context) the relative interest in the show vs other upcoming fantasy efforts:

What we have above are two Amazon series' (Lord of the Rings and Wheel of Time) and two Netflix series' (Narnia and Sandman). It's worth noting that these search categories will pick-up general interest in the books and other associated content, but its as close as we can get using Google Trends. The utter indifference to Wheel of Time hasn't changed (a series that erred immediately with both the showrunner and incoherent casting), but otherwise the interest is where you'd expect for two classics and a well-regarded comic from Neil Gaiman. If there's anything to note, it's that the relative interest (once you compare it to the established IP) hasn't spiked--none approach Stranger Things etc. I think a big reason for this is the unknown cast, with Amazon either hiding big names or the cast being picked for cost reasons (or, potentially, bigger names turned it down because they weren't persuaded by the creative people involved). Unlike with other properties, there's almost no fan-related content for the show--it can be found only on niche channels (either small ones that are broadly positive or as occasional content for bigger channels that are quite negative) and its related Reddit fair is anemic and prone to fighting.

Final Thoughts

To sum up, I hope this show is fantastic. While my opinion of Jackson's Lord of the Rings films has declined over the years, I recognize how lauded they remain and if Amazon can approach their quality I'll be very happy. With that said, given who is making the show (both the company and the showrunners), my expectations are very low. The odds are this will be a Frankensteinian mess with the writers completely missing the boat on Tolkien and aiming for a crude George R. R. Martin/CW abomination that will embarrass everyone. If the latter occurs, Amazon spent too much money on the IP to give up, so not only will we get a second season regardless, the company will try for something else entirely hoping to win back the fans (just like the endless efforts by CBS to make Trek work, or Disney pushing the Star Wars needle like a heroin addict). My fingers are crossed--let's hope we get something worth investing into.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)